In the Narváez story, what if...?

Part of a 1559 map of La Florida, 31 years after the Narváez expedition. The "Baya de Baxos" might indicate the St. Marks, Florida estuary, likely the Narváez "Bay of Horses."

History is full of those fascinating what-if alternatives that we like to think might have changed everything. In the story of the Narváez expedition, the what-ifs are fascinating. For instance, what if instead of first spending a fruitless month searching for treasure around Apalache, Narváez had immediately sent a detachment to the coast to look for and reestablish contact with their support ships, which were still cruising the coast in search of them? Then, after giving up on Apalache, they could have sailed farther west along the coast to a good harbor such as those at Pensacola or Mobile Bay. Rested and reprovisioned, they could have launched another invasion from there and/or founded a colony, which the king had authorized them to do. Narváez might now be famous for having established the first permanent settlement in the U.S. (predating St. Augustine by 37 years). Or what if the debilitated and desperate Spaniards, instead of trying to escape westward to Pánuco (then, a Spanish province and settlement in northeast Mexico) in their handmade boats—a coastal distance of over 1,200 miles—had sailed southeastward and back along the coast toward Tampa Bay to reconnect with their ships at the original landing site, only a couple hundred miles away? Of course, not knowing their longitude or that of Pánuco, they had no idea the distances were so different. Either way, could Narváez have lived longer to become a more famous and enduring character in our history? Given his careless nature, maybe not.

La Florida in the Little Ice Age

The Spanish conquests in the New World took place in the 16th century during a period of cooler drier climate in the Northern Hemisphere. Known as the “Little Ice Age”, it lasted from about 1300 to about 1850. Evidence of it is seen in tree ring data and in its many historical impacts on agriculture and other human endeavors. In his account of the Narváez expedition, Cabeza de Vaca describes the natural environment at Apalache (Tallahassee, FL area) during June and July in 1528, and makes the surprising comment that, “There, the country is very cold.” It surely was cooler on average during the LIA relative to modern times, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. And the Florida panhandle was no doubt cooler than Cuba or Central Florida, where these men had recently come from. Why does this matter for the Narváez history? After six weeks of boat building near St. Marks, FL, they departed on October 2 (modern Gregorian calendar is 10 days later than their Julian calendar) westward along the coast toward Mexico. Their five boats were finally wrecked on the northern coast of Texas around November 16 after delays of a week or so due to cold northerly winds. Had they reached that point a month earlier, more favorable conditions might have allowed them to regather their strength and continue along the coast as it angled more southward. But the die was cast, and all but four perished on or near that coast.

Source: Wikipedia

Narváez as a man of destiny?

Conquistador Pánfilo de Narváez

In my novel, the history professor McLean says about his favorite conquistador Pánfilo de Narváez: Depending on the circumstances, he might come off as a hero or a villain, a glowing success or a disgraceful failure. But always playing the role of the bold conquistador. He seemed to live entirely in the present, not reflecting on his past mistakes or planning to avoid future ones. He would never fail gradually or thoughtfully. I think he was always destined to blunder fatally and take his followers down with him. In short, Narváez was Hollywood-like character, larger than life and admirable in some ways, but not the best manager of his own life. Here's a fair sketch of him by four contemporaries who knew him well.

Bernal Díaz del Castillo (conquistador and officer of Hernán Cortés): Narváez was in appearance about forty-two years of age, tall, very muscular, of full face, and he had a red beard. He reasoned well, and his presence was agreeable; he was leisurely in discourse, with a voice of great volume, like that of one speaking in a vault. He rode well, and was reputed to be courageous. He had been a captain in Cuba, was wealthy, and was said to be penurious.

Bishop of Chiapas in New Spain (Mexico): This Pánfilo de Narváez was a man of commanding person, tall of stature, complexion fair, inclining to be red, honest, of good judgment, though not very discreet, agreeable in conversation, with pleasing address, brave against Indians, and probably would have been against other people, had ever occasion offered for fighting them; but over every fault he had, was that of being very careless.

Gonzalo Fernández de Oviedo y Valdés (New World historian): I well believe that the advice I gave to Pánfilo in Toledo occurred to him many times. In truth, I have often marveled, and even been angered at these captains, seeing that for the one part they are able, skillful and valiant men, while for the other, although they have seen other leaders fail, in whose failure they should take warning, they never fear, nor warn others of danger. Would to God that those who thus suffer affliction paid with their lives only, without their souls receiving detriment! But I much doubt their salvation, because I have lived so long in these Indies that I have seen that they are actuated, for the most part, by this accursed greed, which thrusts aside, for gain, all the scruples their consciences would otherwise respect.

Bartolomé de las Casas (Dominican friar and advocate for indigenous rights): The careless Narváez was always watching murders being done [in Cuba], without saying nor doing anything, nor moving any more than if he had been made of marble, because if he had wanted to, being on horseback, and with a lance in his hand, he could have hindered the Spaniards so that they would not have killed ten people.